So, last week we went 1-2 on the SMcS Best Bets (we told you not to listen to us). In our defense, the Bungals sucked worse than even we expected and the Miami “wild cat” offense was neutered like a common house cat (damn you Bob Barker). So here we go this week, which is what we consider a very tough week to call.

Tennessee Titans -7 over Houston Texans (3 out of 5 stars)

First and foremost, Houston sucks hard. Second and more importantly Q B Matt Schaub is gimping on a bad ankle. This makes the Texans a one dimensional run/quick-out team with Steve Slaton. Look for Tennessee to gobble up Slaton and dance all over Schaub with their blue suede shoes. This game will most likely get ugly early and then tighten up down the stretch.

New Orleans Saints -1 over Philadelphia Eagles (3 out of 5 stars)

Kevin Kolb. There is our reasoning. The Saints have the firepower to wear down and scores on the staunch Philly D. We don’t see the Kolb-run Iggles having the scoring prowess to keep up with the Drew Brees air attack. This one might go back and forth, but it’ll wind up with Mama McNabb happy that here little man has his starting job secured for the season.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 over Chicago Bears (4 out of 5 stars)

This is more of a wager against diabetes than anything else. The Steeler defense is too fast, too rough, and too INT happy to allow Jay Cutler much room to pass. Forte and the run game might keep Chicago in the game, but the absence of Urlacher and the week secondary will surely give the Steelers a huge advantage.

Green Bay/Detroit over 45 (5 out of 5 stars)

The combination of field turf, indoor weather, Matthew Stafford, Brett Favre’s knack for scoring and throwing picks, purple jesus, and the NFC have us guessing that this game will be full-throttle, ugly, and full of huge plays each and everyway. Take the over and enjoy.  You know it is Minnesota, right?
…..Click here to read more

With 414 quarterbacks on the roster, the Philadelphia Eagles have decided to start back-up Kevin Kolb this week against the New Orleans Saints. For the city’s sake we pray he does just mediocre. We don;t want to see another Mama McNabb blog about how her son deserves to be respected.

After Monday Night’s devastating fourth quarter let down, some angy Buffalo Bills fans decided to deface Leodis McKelvin’s lawn.  According to police, the vandalism consisted of the score, 25-24, and a depiction of  male genitalia.  McKelvin, if you recall, made the poor decision to take a late Patriot’s kickoff out of the endzone and then subsequently fumbles it.  The next series for the Pats was the eventual game winner.  Sucks to be a bill and even McSuckier to be a McKelvin.

Bills cornerback’s lawn trashed in wake of loss–The Buffalo News

We find this video, although low quality, to be hilarious.  Tom Brady was basically chased and accosted by Suzy Kolber last night.  That little pygmy dwarf needs to recognize she ain’t no Erin Andrews.   Broadway Joe wouldn’t kiss her sober.

As week one of the NFL season is getting ready to pop, we’d like to share our best bets for today.  Wager at your own risk.

Bengals -4.5 over the Donks (4 stars out of 5)

The Broncos come into this game with a disgruntled star wideout in Brandon Marshall and a drunken, undersized should-be 3rd stringer at QB.  In fact, Kyle Orton with either be sitting or worse yet playing with an injured finger.  Should he sit, make way for Chris Simms.  We’ll take a Cincinnati team with Crotcho Stinko, Pretty Boy Palmer, and a Cedric “needs to be more entertaining” Benson. This game will be close and not very interesting based on the mutual suckage of each contender.  We see Cincy shining in the end and pulling out a 6-10 pt victory going away.

Dolphins and Falcons over 44.5 (4 stars our of 5)

We like Matt Ryan and the Falcons to start where they left off last year which means tons of action and plenty of scoring.  Take a Miami wildcat offense on turf  (and on grass with Ricky smoking it up in the backfield) and we’ll figure them to put at least 3 TDs on the board.  We banking on this hitting the mid 30s by half and cruising to an over by early in the 4th.

Ravens -13 over the Chefs (3 stars out of 5)

KC comes into to hostile Baltimore without starting QB Matt Cassel and sans their all-start TE.   Expect them to get chewed up, spit out and stepped on by the Ravens D.  After last season’s impressive performance, we are true believers that a Baltimore team can score as well as hold opponents scoreless.  This should be a woodshedding.

We at SMcS aren’t, as a general rule, very good at writing game recaps.  Mainly because we don’t have the patience to do more than poorly photoshop a picture or write an ill-informed few phrases about some story.  It also has to do with the fact that we drink a lot during the games and our tivo is filled with Hannah Montana reruns.  We leave recapping up to the pros.  For a perfect recap of every Steeler game, we rely on Pittsburgh Sports and Mini Ponies’ weekly  game recap “Monday Morning Chrysler New Yorker”.  That would be PSAMP’s MMCNY for you acronym guys.

Anyways, we go right to PSAMP and gank the recap. Read it here and be sure to check out the site a www.psamp.com

MONDAY MORNING CHRYSLER NEW YORKER

 Even though I predicted a 10-0 Steelers win, the 13-10 OT triumph was as close as I could’ve gotten.

For awhile, I thought my prediction would eventually come to be. The teams were tied at zero, and offensive stumbles or defensive stops would overwhelm each drive. Ben didn’t seem right, and the offensive line made me want to vomit after every snap. We weren’t out of it by any means, but we certainly weren’t “in” it.

The box score shows a three point win in favor of the Black and Gold. I’ll remember this game as one in which my team used the traditional Steelers recipe of keeping games close and winning them in the latest, most dramatic stages. I mean, of course the 2009 season kickoff game would go to overtime…it was just an expected happening.

Some parts of the team were awesome. Other were not. This is when we distinguish between the two.

Sasso: Man, he looked like a steaming pile of terrible early in that game. He struggled with accuracy, noticeably over or under-throwing several balls. And that’s not even accounting for the crushing sacks he took in the first half. I believe I cursed his name several times before halftime arrived. He finished with okay stats, 33-43 for 363 yards, a TD and 2 INTs. The second pick I could forgive, as it was a prayer of a Hail Mary at the end of the first half. He seemed to shake off the early rust to get it done late (as usual). 3 of 5 motorcycle helmets, because I won’t stand for that kind of drama all season.

RB Corps: That was a pitiful performance. Willie only had 19 yards on 13 carries. Mendenhall had 4 carries for 6 yards. Mewelde Moore totaled 8 yards on 5 carries. No matter what football plane of existence you live on, those are horrible stats. I’ll give 3 of 5 motorcycle helmets, as part of the blame lies with the…

O Line: I couldn’t count the number of times Ben would get the ball from center, and 3 Titans would immediately be moving unobstructed to the QB as if the O Line was nonexistent. The first few drives alone were a summation of the 2008-09 season…a Swiss cheese O Line with a penchant for holding and false start penalties. I’ll go even lower and give them a 2.5 of 5 helmets.

San Antonio. Proved that the Super Bowl MVP was no fluke. Dude pulled down the exact same stats as the championship against Arizona…9 catches for 131 yards and a TD. Pretty weird that he’d hit every major category on the dot. Sure, he came up huge down the stretch again, but along with Heath Miller, was one of Ben’s favorite targets on the night. There was really no downside, so Santonio gets 4.5 of 5 motorcycle helmets.

Sepulveda. IT’S SO AWESOME TO HAVE A PUNTER 5 OF 5 MOTORCYCLE HELMETS!

And yes, I’ll refrain from judging Hines. He fumbled, he knows he fumbled and he was relieved to have been saved by Jeff Reed in OT. It wasn’t one of his proudest moments, but he used it as a learning tool, even this early in the season.

Oh, and Troy was Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. He had about 1,000 tackles and that sweet pick, but also had a handful of penalties in that first quarter. At least one was ticky-tack, but he can’t make excuses for a slip here and there. Now that injury…

The Steelers play in Chicago against Jay Cutler and the Bears at 4:15 PM Sunday, September 20th.

It is that time of year again. NFL season. Donkies will wager and bookies will rejoice. We here at SMcS fit into the donk category (as do you). We’d like to offer a loose and unofficial set of guidelines for you other schleps to go by. This is by no means a bible, a set of rules, or anything we consider anything beyond some practical advice and a “how not to” guide. Take it all with a grain of salt and don’t come crying to us when you lose your Christmas money on a brutal backdoor cover or that hanging hook.

We have provided a link to a gambling terminology/glossary page. Use it.   Know it.  There will be a quiz

GoodCasinos.com Gambling Sports Gambling Terms/Lingo

1. Starting While You Are Behind.

As a general rule, you are not making a wise decision anytime you wager. The odds are stacked against you from the get go. If you bet with the spread, you are already 10% behind the odds based on the vigorish or juice your bookie charges. The house’s goal is to get even money on each side in order to insure a guaranteed 10% gain no matter how the final score winds up. So, what does this mean? It means we are all donkeys for betting. Live with it, we do.

2. Locks and luck.

There is absolutely no such thing as a “lock” or a guaranteed win. Erase the word from your lexicon and ban anyone as friend who uses it, EVER. Anyone who claims to have or know of a lock is a complete d-bag, a con man, or a bigger mark than you. Tips and inside information are one thing, but know that unless you have a true inside track (like a black mailing arrangement with an NFL team trainer who you caught cross dressing) tips are pure horseshit and Vegas has already adjusted the line to account for the information.

3. Don’t be a homer.

Most local bookies are smart enough to jack the line around for the home team’s game knowing that most locals will bet with the home squad. This especially rings true in cities with winning teams or a strong fan base. Be aware of this and shop the lines. Don’t be afraid to lay off or bet or take the other side when you find value in the away team’s spot. No one is forcing you to bet the game either.

4. They know what you like.

Vegas knows the mentality of a bettor and the overall flaws in the human thought process. With that being said, the line is adjusted to the favorite and the over. Don’t be afraid to bet the underdog or the under.

5. Try to control your stupid urges.

We know how it is. You look at the lines all week and pick a game or maybe two that you know you want to bet. Then you get on the phone or online and end up making those two plays and 10 more. Stop it. Slow down, donkey. There is no rule that states you need to have cash on every game. Keep in mind (see point #1) that you are severely decreasing your odds of winning the more you add plays (especially ones you haven’t put any thought into). Most successful bettors (read: the very small percentage of people actually ahead in life) know that you pick a game or two a week that you like and play them. They also know that it is not a crime to lay off the entire week should you not see a game that you like.

6. Look to the sky (or the internet).

One of the biggest mistakes that we amateurs make is to not check the weather in a game we are betting. Weather has an assload to do with how a game is played, how effective each teams game plan goes, and generally how things go on the field. If you are wagering on a game and you have no clue what is happening locally weather-wise you are a fool. And know which teams play in a dome so you can ignore the local weather report.

7. Who has a hammy.

Aside from weather, one of the most overlooked aspects of game is injury/starting status and suspensions. Like weather, who a team puts on the field is a huge part of the game. Although Vegas usually adjust the line for these situations, you still need to know what the hell is happening to make informed betting decisions. Hey, we’ve all been there; laying too much than we care to on a game, piling into the living room with hot microwave popcorn and a grape juice to ready to make some cashola only to realize that Tom Brady is out with a sprained left fallopian tube. It is 2009, with the proclivity of the internet and the plethora sports sites reporting on every minuscule detail of the NFL–there is NO REASON to not know who is scratched from a game that you are laying half your disability check on.

8. Put the phone down, donkey.

Don’t spend your hard earned money on some asshat loudmouth pickline windbag. We know, his sales pitch is slick and convincing. We know, you might be down and out and on a 10 game losing streak. We know, your best friends brothers dentists cousin Phil has been using this guy and he is 215-0 on his picks and everyone Phil knows is shopping for yachts with their winnings. Lies. All Lies. The pick guy is a scam artist and Phil, his cousin the dentist, your best friend’s brother, and your pal are all either trumping up the truth or terribly gullible. Picklines make their living hucking unqualified picks and preying upon the weakened gambler who thinks there is any easy way to payday. Put. The. Phone. Down. Donkey.

9. Watch some reruns.

There is no law, axiom, suggestion, tip or requirement to have money on every game that happens to be shown on TV. This one of the biggest downfalls for gambling donkey; having to have a little money on a game because it is on the tube. We know how it is, they could play the Super Bowl in our backyard and if we didn’t have any action on it we’d shut the curtains and play Uno. But, seriously, control yourself. Take only the games you like. Only the games you have handicapped. Only the games you are comfortable with. Screw the TV. And don’t go to Damon’s, they make it too easy to switch to each and every game.

10. Keep ‘em separate, treat ‘em right.

Fundamentally and categorically we are against playing teasers and parlays. They are a tax for the mathematically challenged. The odds don’t stack up to make them a smart play.
A parlay payout, although it seems juicy, is actually worse odds than a straight bet. In a two team parlay, you have 4 outcomes (disregarding a push/tie )
1. A and B win 3. A loses B wins
2. A wins b loses 4. Both A and B lose
Only one outcome nets you money and you only get paid 2.5 times on a win….bad odds any way you slice it.

Teasers are even worse. You have to pick two (or more games) get them all correct and you have take a professional line with robust capping and factors built in and decide on your own amateurish self how to adjust it. Then you pay double or triple the juice should you lose. It just isn’t worth the risk.